Officials are offering divergent estimates of how much revenue could be raised by bringing the shadow economy into the open, ranging from RUB 500 billion to as much as RUB 1 trillion. Planned measures include tighter customs controls and closer scrutiny of the origin of cash. Households, meanwhile, appear to be adjusting to the government’s approach: bankers and sociologists report a rising share of cash payments. The finance ministry expects the ‘whitening effect’ to amount to 0.3–0.4% of GDP, Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Sazanov said on Thursday.
The Russian government is looking to boost tax and customs revenues even as the economy cools and slips towards stagnation. Delivering on those ambitions will be challenging amid falling profits and a growing share of loss-making businesses. Companies’ nominal profits declined by 1.3% last year, while losses rose by 7.5%. The proportion of unprofitable companies has also increased, climbing from 25.5% to 27.1%, according to the latest Rosstat data. Part of the drop in reported profits and the rise in losses reflects businesses shifting into the shadows and increasingly relying on cash transactions.
With demand weakening and output declining across many sectors, raising additional tax revenues is a serious challenge. It is therefore no surprise that officials are offering widely diverging estimates of how much the planned formalisation of the economy might bring in.
‘Overall, we expect the plan to bring the shadow economy into the open to generate 0.3–0.4% of GDP annually,’ said Alexey Sazanov, State Secretary and Deputy Finance Minister, speaking at the fifth St Petersburg Tax Forum.
In rouble terms, the expected ‘whitening effect’ is estimated at RUB 650–850 billion. Earlier, however, officials had floated even more optimistic projections.
‘We expect the measures set out in the plan to cut the shadow economy’s share of GDP by 1.5 percentage points over three years. At the same time, additional revenues across all levels of the budget system could reach up to 0.5% of GDP annually, including net exports, compared with the 2024 baseline, or a round RUB 1 trillion a year from 2027,’ Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in December 2025.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov struck a notably more cautious tone on Thursday on the potential budget gains from the formalisation drive.
‘This year the government has been tasked with bringing more of the economy out of the shadows and shrinking the informal sector, with customs authorities bearing much of the responsibility,’ Siluanov said on March 19 at a Federal Customs Service meeting.
‘The targets are ambitious: we aim to raise RUB 500 billion a year in both 2026 and 2027, with the tax service and customs working jointly to deliver this,’ he added, as cited by RBC.
How much the campaign will cost remains unclear. Ideally, the outlay will not exceed the additional revenues it is meant to generate. For now, in the absence of rouble-denominated cost estimates, the government is outlining only its key priorities for 2026.
‘The plan covers six sectors where the shadow economy is most entrenched: trade within the EAEU, the domestic goods market, the labour market, the circulation of cash and digital currencies, illegal lending, and the tobacco and nicotine products market,’ Novak said. ‘First, we will introduce a mechanism to verify the legitimacy of Russian recipients of goods imported from EAEU countries, alongside advance VAT payments on such imports, the so-called SPOT system,’ he said. ‘Second, controls will be tightened over the declared value of labelled goods imported from the EAEU, with the Federal Tax Service granted the necessary powers. Third, we will curb the uncontrolled export of cash roubles of unverified origin, including to EAEU member states, as well as the export of gold bullion from Russia,’ the deputy prime minister added.
‘Fourth, measures will target individuals operating in trade and services without state registration or failing to use cash registers,’ he said.
‘Fifth, we will tackle the misclassification of employees as self-employed by legally defining the criteria for employment status and introducing administrative liability for employers,’ Novak said
‘Sixth, a package of measures will be introduced to encourage a shift to cashless payments. Seventh, we will establish a legal framework for digital currency circulation, including administrative penalties for breaches of mining rules and criminal liability for illegal mining,’ Novak said. ‘Eighth, penalties, including criminal liability, will be tightened for illegal consumer lending. Ninth, we will introduce licensing for wholesale and retail trade in tobacco and nicotine products,’ the deputy prime minister added.
Alexey Sazanov said on Thursday that a package of draft laws aimed at bringing more of the economy into the open would be submitted to the State Duma shortly.
Businesses and consumers are also adjusting in their own way. Sberbank, for example, reports that growth in cashless payments has stalled amid recent tax changes.
‘We had seen strong growth in cashless transactions, but that momentum has now stalled. A number of tax initiatives have clearly halted the shift away from cash,’ Sberbank chief executive German Gref said in late February 2026.
The increase in value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% introduced in 2026, along with other measures to boost tax collection, is likely to push part of the small business sector further into the shadows, according to a new forecast by the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting. Survey data suggest the trend is already taking hold. In February 2026, some 27% of respondents said they had more often been asked by sellers to pay in cash over the previous six months (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 17, 2026).
However, the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTsIOM) pollster on Wednesday reported far higher levels of requests for cash payments. According to its latest survey, one in two Russians has been asked by sellers this year to pay in cash, while one in three said such requests were repeated.
The North Caucasus federal district has the highest share of respondents encountering requests for cash payments. Such practices have also become more common in large cities, with higher rates reported among residents of Moscow and St Petersburg, VTsIOM said.
Original: NG/Экономика охладела к безналичным платежам
