Consumer sentiment in Russia is deteriorating. In recent months, negative assessments of both current conditions and economic trends have consistently outweighed positive views. Official data show nominal wages rising by 13.5% over the past year and pensions by 9%. Yet spending data tell a different story: everyday consumption has continued to decline, falling below last year’s levels even without adjusting for inflation. One explanation is precautionary behaviour. More than half of Russians expect the economic outlook to worsen and are bracing for tougher times ahead (see NG dated March 17, 2026).
Russia’s consumer confidence index has been on a downward trajectory since the fourth quarter of 2025, according to research group Romir.
The index turned negative in January 2026 for the first time in a prolonged period. It fell further in February to minus 3 points, down 1 point month-on-month.
Romir defines the index as the percentage-point gap between negative and positive consumer assessments.
Sociologists survey households using a standard set of questions, including ‘How would you describe the current economic situation in our country?’ and ‘What do you expect in the near future?’ Romir’s headline index measures the gap between positive and negative responses. In the first and second quarters of last year, positive assessments of both current conditions and the outlook exceeded negative views by 11% and 13% respectively. But from the second half of the year onward the index began to slide and has since moved into negative territory. In practical terms, those saying the situation is ‘getting worse’ now outnumber those who believe it is ‘improving’ by around 3 percentage points.
Strikingly, negative sentiment remains entrenched despite pension indexation, official claims that poverty is declining and reports of record wages in parts of the economy.
In mid-March 2026, Rosstat reported a further drop in official poverty. In the fourth quarter of last year, the national poverty threshold stood at RUB 17,146 per month, while the share of people living below it fell to 4.8%.
Taken at face value, the data suggest officials are making steady progress in reducing poverty. The number of people classified as poor stood at 10.3 million in 2024, declining by a further 500,000 last year.
Rosstat’s March data also point to strong wage and pension growth last year. The average gross monthly wage rose by 13.5% year-on-year to above RUB 100,000 before taxes and contributions. In real terms, wages increased by 4.4%. Average nominal pensions climbed 9% to more than RUB 25,200 a month, equivalent to a 2.8% rise after inflation.
Rosstat’s reports offer little evidence of any deterioration in living standards. Yet surveys and spending data point to a far less upbeat picture, one that challenges the narrative of steady improvement.
‘The annual growth rate of nominal consumer spending slowed sharply on the previous week, while real spending fell 1.7% year-on-year,’ SberIndex said after analysing household expenditure in the week following the March 8 holiday. Analysts said the data suggest households cut back further after a brief pre-holiday uptick in spending.
‘The sharp slowdown last week was largely driven by a base effect from the preceding “atypical” week. This year, consumer spending fell 9.5% in March 9–15 compared with March 2–8, versus a 7.3% decline a year earlier,’ SberIndex said. Analysts noted the sharpest deceleration since the start of the year in spending on food and services. By contrast, outlays on non-food goods picked up relative to February 2026.
‘At this time last year, spending on leisure and travel, including air tickets, hotels and trips, was picking up. This year, amid instability in the Middle East, there is no comparable surge in consumer activity,’ the analysts said.
Spending on air tickets and travel has fallen below last year’s levels for the first time, down 2.4% and 5.1% respectively. By contrast, rail fares remain buoyant, with spending up 19.7% week-on-week and 29.3% compared with February.
An economic and psychological assessment of Russian society points to a continued shift towards precautionary saving throughout 2026, with ad hoc spending outweighing plans for big-ticket purchases, according to a report by the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Psychology. ‘Pronounced anxiety and depressive symptoms are observed in 31% of Russians. This is underpinned by pessimistic economic expectations, as well as mounting fatigue from the military campaign alongside fading hopes for its early conclusion,’ the report said (see NG dated March 17, 2026.
Around 60% of Russians see a scenario in which the conflict between Russia and NATO continues on Ukrainian territory as the most likely outcome in 2026. Expectations of a prolonged conflict are ‘prompting a mobilisation of psychological resources to cope with a drawn-out crisis’. This is reflected in the rising share of respondents who believe the worst is yet to come. That view is now held by 52% of Russians, up 7 percentage points since December 2025. The main driver of economic expectations this year is no longer the prospect of the military campaign ending, but rising prices and the fallout from deficits in federal and regional budgets.
A deteriorating economic backdrop and gradual tax increases are likely to entrench shadow economic activity among low-income households and encourage it among higher earners, sociologists say. Preference for cash payments is closely tied to inflation expectations, fears of potential restrictions, low trust in federal authorities and a perceived rise in inequality.
Original: NG/Потребительская уверенность падает на фоне роста пенсий и зарплат
