Researchers at Romir are already urging companies to place greater emphasis on older buyers, as the country’s most active consumer cohort, those aged 35 to 54, is expected to shrink in the coming years. Experts warn that demand for medicines is likely to rise, while demand for durable goods will decline.
Romir’s research indicates that Russia’s overall population will fall by 2 % by 2030. The sharpest decline will be among those aged 35 to 54, a group expected to shrink by almost 3 million. By contrast, the number of people aged over 55 will rise by 250,000, while the under-35 population will increase by 410,000.
That points to a significant decline in the country’s most financially secure consumers. Growth among younger buyers will not be enough to offset the contraction of the main creditworthy group, said Anastasia Sidorina, Romir’s client relations director. Sociologists say businesses should already be targeting not only younger consumers, but also older buyers, who account for a sizeable share of the market today.
Russia’s creditworthy consumer base is concentrated among middle-aged people, the country’s most financially secure group. They account for 38 % of the population, according to Romir. People over 55 already make up 36 %. Sociologists note that older consumers spend more on average than younger ones. Russians aged over 55 spend an average of 21,800 roubles a month, compared with 18,700 roubles among those under 35
‘This means the traditional focus on younger audiences is no longer enough. For brands, retailers and service companies, products, communications and customer experiences tailored to mature consumers will become increasingly important. These consumers are more affluent, active and ready to make considered choices,’ the sociologists said.
The shift in the age profile of solvent consumers is primarily driven by population ageing and a falling birth rate. Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said last autumn that people aged 60 and over would account for more than a quarter of Russia’s population by 2030. By 2046, the proportion of older people is expected to exceed 30 %.
The minister said 35.6 million people in Russia are currently aged 60 or above, representing 24.4 % of the population.
Rosstat’s demographic forecast, however, suggests that by 2030 the share of people above working age in Russia will fall to 23 %, with their number declining to 32.9 million.
The Ministry of Labour’s Strategy for Action in the Interests of Older Citizens until 2030 says the share of Russians over 55 reached 30 % in 2024, up from 21 % in 1990.
One adverse trend is the shrinking number of people of economically active age. Over the next five years, the number of Russians aged 30 to 39 will fall by 6.2 million, Deputy Labour and Social Protection Minister Dmitry Platygin said last year. By contrast, the number of young people aged 15 to 29 is expected to rise by 2.2 million by 2030.
Experts say the shift in Russia’s age structure is already becoming a key factor for the economy.
‘According to Rosstat’s forecast, the country’s population could decline by about 3.2 million by 2030, with the steepest fall concentrated among those aged 35 to 54, the most economically active group. This cohort currently accounts for a significant share of demand for housing, cars, mortgages, home renovation, children’s education and other big-ticket spending. Its contraction therefore points to slower growth in domestic consumption and weaker momentum across a range of industries,’ said Vitaly Lavrinovich, a business analyst at PRoud.365.
A rising share of older citizens will also reshape consumer spending, Lavrinovich said, with more money going towards healthcare, pharmaceuticals, wellness products and social services. For the economy, this means not only higher state spending on healthcare and pensions, but also the creation of new markets.
‘Japan, for example, is considered one of the world’s oldest economies, with people over 65 already accounting for about 29 % of the population. As a result, technologies for elderly care, home-help services, robotics and medical services are developing rapidly there,’ Lavrinovich said.
Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University, said the growing share of older consumers would increase demand for medical services, medicines, rehabilitation equipment and other products that help elderly people maintain an active lifestyle. But consumers aged 55 and over tend to save rather than spend, he said, which could weigh on overall consumption. By contrast, people under 35 are more inclined towards impulse purchases, online shopping and subscription services, helping to drive the growth of e-commerce and digital services.
‘Changes in the population’s age structure inevitably affect consumption patterns. Older groups are more conservative and quality-focused. As society ages, the propensity to save rises, while overall consumption declines. At the same time, demand for healthcare services usually increases,’ said Elena Kiseleva, an analyst at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies.
‘Changes in the age profile of consumers, against the backdrop of a shrinking population, will be one of the main challenges facing Russia’s economy in the coming years. Companies will have to rethink product ranges, marketing strategies and service models, with a stronger focus on mature consumers. The economy, too, will have to adapt to these new realities,’ said Vladimir Vinogradov, chief executive of Pro-Vision Communications.
Among older age groups, per capita spending falls across all major consumption categories, with the exception of medicines, according to researchers at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in a study titled ‘Features of Consumer Behaviour Among Older People in Russia’.
The highest average monthly per capita spending, at 30,500 roubles, is recorded among respondents aged 25 to 29 and 30 to 34, a stage marked by relatively high and rising earnings and the birth of first children, the HSE said. Spending declines thereafter. Among those aged 50 to 54 and 55 to 59, per capita spending stands at 27,000-28,000 roubles. It then falls in each subsequent age group, from 22,700 roubles among those aged 60 to 64 to 17,300-17,800 roubles among those aged 75 to 79.
From the age of 60, spending patterns become simpler, with basic categories such as food at home, utilities and medicines taking up a larger share. Among people aged 70 and over, basic consumption accounts for an average of 81 % of spending. Food spending dominates in older age groups and leaves little room for other outlays, the researchers said. Another feature is that payments on loans, debts and microloans disappear after the age of 60. The largest repayments on loans and consumer credit, however, are found among those approaching retirement age, the HSE noted.
The ageing of the consumer base will inevitably reshape the market, said Olga Lebedinskaya, an associate professor in the statistics department at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
‘Real estate, children’s education, cars and insurance will clearly remain in demand for now. But as this group shrinks, we may see stagnation in family consumption segments. Demand could shift away from durable goods towards services, health and experiences,’ she said
Antonina Levashenko, head of the laboratory for analysing best international practices at the Gaidar Institute, said younger consumers spend mainly on clothing, cosmetics, mobile services, digital subscriptions, games, education, food delivery and entertainment.
‘For the older generation, those aged 55 and over, completely different strategies are needed. They buy online less often and are more likely to shop in person, including at markets,’ she said.
The silver economy could become a growth engine for healthcare, tourism, technology and finance, Lebedinskaya said. But if policy remains passive, it could instead become a source of additional pressure on the social fund.
Experts at the Financial University have previously warned that population ageing will increase the tax burden. They estimate that people aged 30 to 50 currently generate the bulk of tax revenues, accounting for more than 60 % of personal income tax, VAT, excise duties and social contributions. Rosstat forecasts that the working-age share of the population will fall to 59.3 % by 2040, while the share of elderly people will rise to almost 27 % by 2046. That would narrow the tax base while increasing budget pressure through higher spending on pensions, healthcare and social services.
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