New Ukrainian drone attacks on southern grain terminals have significantly reduced Russia’s capacity to export agricultural products. The Russian government is trying to find alternative routes for shipping agricultural commodities abroad. For now, however, farmers are complaining that they are unable to sell produce from the new harvest. Difficulties with exports are creating conditions for lower food prices at home. But following the decline in prices, farmers are likely to cut production volumes
The poor protection of Russian ports and vessels in the Black and Azov seas has made Russian agricultural exports highly vulnerable, and Russia’s opponents have taken advantage of this. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks damaged grain terminals in the Novorossiysk area. Grain exports had already fallen significantly because of attacks on ports in the Azov and Black seas, as well as strikes on merchant vessels operating there
On Thursday, the Russian government began looking for alternative routes for agricultural exports. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut held a meeting with regional authorities, exporters, industry associations and representatives of transport and port infrastructure to discuss new routes for grain and vegetable-oil products.
‘The key task is to ensure the timely sale of grain and vegetable-oil products and establish supply routes taking into account the current logistical restrictions,’ the Agriculture Ministry said.
Also on Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 agricultural year by 1.5 mln tonnes, to 46 mln tonnes from 47.5 mln tonnes in its July forecast. The reasons included ‘logistical disruptions caused by the intensification of the conflict in the Azov and Black seas’. At the same time, the US Agriculture Department significantly raised its forecast for Russia’s carryover grain stocks at the end of the season, on June 30, 2027, to 13.59 mln tonnes from 12.09 mln tonnes a month earlier. Its estimate for this season’s wheat harvest remained unchanged at 88.5 mln tonnes.
‘The persistent hopes of a significant number of market participants that the situation in the Azov and Black seas would normalise have collided with the inevitable reality of further escalation. The market is seriously underestimating this situation,’ said Andrei Sizov, director of the SovEcon analytical centre
On Thursday, the Delo Group announced that it was suspending operations at its grain terminal in the port of Novorossiysk.
‘The terminal is suspending the unloading of road and rail transport, the loading of grain onto vessels and other operations. The decision was taken to ensure the safety of employees and infrastructure,’ the company said.
The Russian Agriculture Ministry said it was working to redirect cargo flows to alternative destinations, including ports on the Baltic and Caspian seas, the Russian Far East and overland routes. The ministry has proposed a package of additional support measures to ensure supplies.
‘Major exporters need to determine the volumes of products, primarily grain in light of the progress of the harvest, that they can purchase and ship, and establish specific supply routes. This work will first be carried out in Rostov Region, where the harvest of early grains has already been completed and significant export potential has been accumulated,’ Agriculture Ministry officials said. They promised to identify the most efficient routes for each region, taking into account the geography and economics of transportation. To coordinate the work, the ministry will establish a task force involving regions, exporters and transport infrastructure operators. Its tasks will include collecting exporters’ plans for grain purchases by region and export destination, monitoring purchase prices, coordinating applications for rail transportation and monitoring the fulfilment of shipment plans by port terminals
‘Prices are falling by RUB 100 or even 200 a day. The price of standard Class 4 wheat has fallen below RUB 12,000 per tonne. Last season, it was around 15,000,’ said Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union.
According to Igor Shakhov, co-owner of TradeAgroService, wheat in Kursk Region is currently being offered at around RUB 10 to 11 per kilogramme. The price is falling almost every day. For many producers, these prices are below production costs.
From August 1 to 10, Russia shipped 976,400 tonnes of major grain crops for export, 22.2% less than in the same period last year, according to monitoring by the Russian Grain Union. Wheat shipments fell by 18.1%, barley by 30% and maize by 2.4 times, said Elena Tyurina, director of the Grain Union’s analytical department.
According to Tyurina, the number of crops being exported has fallen to three, wheat, barley and maize, from 14 a year ago. Wheat was shipped to 12 countries, compared with 19 in the previous season.
‘However, it is worth noting that countries that did not buy Russian wheat in August last season are returning to the market. These include Indonesia, which received 66,000 tonnes, Yemen with 53,700 tonnes, Venezuela with 36,000 tonnes and Morocco with 30,000 tonnes,’ the expert said
Egypt remains the leading buyer of Russian wheat, with shipments to the country rising by 4.3% to 233,600 tonnes. Exports to Sri Lanka increased 17-fold to 77,000 tonnes, while shipments to Bangladesh rose 3.4-fold to 50,300 tonnes
‘Exports to Southeast Asia increased in the first 10 days of August despite the difficult geopolitical situation in the Azov-Black Sea region,’ Tyurina said. At the same time, she noted that there were no shipments to Turkey ‘at the beginning of August’, while exports to Nigeria fell by 43% to 52,200 tonnes.
‘Exports to Southeast Asia increased in the first 10 days of August despite the difficult geopolitical situation in the Azov-Black Sea region,’ Tyurina said. At the same time, she noted that there were no shipments to Turkey ‘at the beginning of August’, while exports to Nigeria fell by 43% to 52,200 tonnes.
Before the latest Ukrainian attacks, Novorossiysk traditionally led in grain export volumes, with shipments there up 12%. Shipments through Tuapse increased 4.5-fold to 122,700 tonnes
‘All other ports are seeing declines. In particular, shipments through Vysotsk fell by 48%, while those through Rostov-on-Don fell 11-fold to just 15,600 tonnes,’ the expert said
Thus, she noted, the negative trend recorded in July continued in August. Grain and pulse exports in July were the lowest for that month in the past seven years, at just 2 mln tonnes. In July last year, exports totalled 3.2 mln tonnes, while the seven-year average is 4.3 mln tonnes.
‘The picture is similar for wheat. July exports, at just 1.8 mln tonnes, were the lowest compared with the seven-year average for that month of 3.4 mln tonnes. If the current geopolitical situation persists, shipments could continue to decline. The price of Russian wheat, Class 4, FOB Novorossiysk, currently has its widest discount to the European price in two years, at $38 per tonne. A year ago, the discount was $5. Despite concerns about the European harvest because of the heat, wheat prices in the EU remained stable during the first 10 days of August at $262 per tonne,’ Tyurina said.
Meanwhile, Russian experts are citing World Bank forecasts that do not envisage a rise in global prices for major food commodities. The global grain market is entering a period of long-term price stagnation amid surplus supply, says Denis Ternovsky, an expert at the Economic Policy Foundation (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 6, 2026). Russian farmers, who are heavily dependent on exports of grain and oilseeds, face a very difficult period, he says. New factors affecting agricultural producers include higher fuel prices, possible disruptions to fertiliser supplies through the Persian Gulf region, and increased risks of disruption to maritime logistics in the Black and Azov seas.
An oversupply of grain on the domestic market could slow the growth of nominal food prices for Russian consumers. In addition, the long-term trend towards greater food affordability is changing the structure of Russians’ diets. Russians are consuming less bread but more meat
According to Rosstat, bread consumption in Russia fell 1.8-fold from 2006 to 35 kilogrammes in 2025. Flour consumption fell by 25% over the same period to 13 kilogrammes. Meat and meat-product consumption exceeded 100 kilogrammes per person for the first time in 2025, according to Rosstat data. Russians consumed an average of 100.7 kilogrammes of meat and meat products during the year, up from 99.9 kilogrammes in 2024. Poultry consumption also increased to 26.4 kilogrammes per person a year, from 25.3 kilogrammes in 2024. Consumption of beef, veal, lamb, pork, offal and sausages fell only slightly from 2024. Russians also consumed more meat snacks, ready-made products and canned food, while sausage consumption remained unchanged (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 9, 2026).
ORIGINAL: NG/Russia Looks for Alternative Routes for Agricultural Exports
