Unpaid bills across the Russian economy, or as Rosstat classifies them ‘overdue receivables’ (goods produced and services delivered but not paid for on time), are nearing RUB 8.5 trillion. That is exactly the amount, according to the latest Rosstat data, that has still not reached suppliers. The situation is worst in manufacturing, and within that in petroleum products. Timely payment affects many things: companies’ ability to pay wages, service debt and invest in production. Russia’s economy is balancing on the edge of a prolonged recession.
The Finance Ministry has pushed back against concerns over the outlook.
‘Where else can it go? It is not growing as much as we would like for now, but it will grow. Everything is within the planned parameters,’ said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
The Economy Ministry’s 2026 forecast, which underpins a budget that this year was not subject to a public revision of its parameters, assumes Russian GDP growth of 1.3 % under its baseline scenario and 0.8 % under its conservative scenario.
Analysts, however, warn that a recession could be imminent. The risk is reflected in calculations by the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, or CMASF, a key think-tank closely followed by Russia’s economic agencies.
Having analysed the data, experts found that Russian GDP grew by just 0.4 % over the rolling year from March 2025 to February 2026. Growth is slowing: a month earlier, for the rolling period from February 2025 to January 2026, it stood at 0.6 %, according to a new review titled ‘What do leading indicators of systemic financial and macroeconomic risks show?’
The specially calculated composite leading indicator (CLI), which signals the onset of recession, did not rise in February for the first time in 15 months. Even so, it remains well above the critical threshold set by analysts.
The indicator continued to suggest that ‘over the rolling-year horizon, up to and including July 2026, the Russian economy may enter a recession’. CMASF defines recession as a contraction in GDP over a rolling year.
‘For this scenario to materialise, real GDP would need to fall by 0.8 % year on year in the first half of 2026,’ analysts warned
The CMASF review also flagged another risk. ‘For the sixth consecutive month, the composite leading indicator continued to suggest that the approaching recession could be prolonged, meaning it could last more than a year.’
The experts added a caveat, seemingly to distance themselves from excessively gloomy expectations given the official narrative. ‘A signal from the leading indicator showing a high probability of recession does not mean that such an outcome is predetermined,’ they said, adding that ‘forecasting errors’ could never be ruled out.
The duration of any downturn is also uncertain. ‘To reach a final conclusion about the length of the looming recession, the composite leading indicator must flash the signal for 12 consecutive months.’
There is greater clarity, however, in the indicators showing the problems that suppliers of goods and services are already facing.
CMASF reported a ‘rapid increase in overdue receivables at Russian companies’, with the figure rising 2.5‑fold over the past five years.
An analysis by Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG) of the latest available Rosstat data, for the end of February, showed that unpaid bills across the Russian economy had almost reached RUB 8.5 trillion, up 22 % from February 2025.
At the end of February last year, overdue payments made up 5.8 % of total receivables. By February this year, the share had risen to 6.7 %.
These are payments for goods produced and services delivered that were not received on time. The picture varies sharply by sector, with several industries failing to collect huge sums from both foreign and domestic buyers.
Manufacturing is the worst affected, accounting for more than a third of all overdue receivables in the economy, at 34 %, or about RUB 2.9 trillion. Within manufacturing, petroleum products have been hit hardest, with overdue payments reaching RUB 1.2 trillion.
Trade ranks second among sectors facing large-scale non-payment, accounting for almost a quarter of overdue receivables, at 23 %, or about RUB 2 trillion. Some 95 % of those arrears are in wholesale trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles.
Mining ranks third, with 11 % of all overdue receivables, or RUB 905 billion. Within the sector, oil and natural gas extraction is under the greatest strain, with unpaid bills exceeding RUB 530 billion at the end of February.
Other sectors also look fragile. Professional, scientific and technical services recorded almost RUB 630 billion in overdue payments, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply almost RUB 515 billion and construction RUB 485 billion.
The pattern is clear. Oil and gas are being produced, but payments for them are not arriving on time, pointing to the impact of external economic and geopolitical pressures.
The same is true elsewhere. Petroleum products are refined, other goods are manufactured, electricity is supplied and buildings are built, yet payments are still delayed, suggesting domestic pressures are also at work.
Companies and sectors that fail to collect payment from counterparties on time inevitably become part of the same chain of non-payment, missing their own deadlines in turn.
‘The non-payment problem begins in core sectors, such as construction, then runs down production chains and eventually spreads across the economy,’ Grigory Bolotin, chairman of the Chuvash Republic Engineering Cluster association, told NG.
Bolotin said the mechanism was straightforward. ‘A company with 15-20 % of its revenue ‘frozen’ in receivables is not only unable to invest in modernisation and expansion. It also starts to struggle to finance working capital,’ he said. In other words, it finds it harder to fund day-to-day operations and meet obligations including payroll
‘The only option is to finance itself at the expense of suppliers, and that is exactly how the non-payment crisis spreads to the next link in the production chain,’ Bolotin added.
As Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, has previously explained, non-payment starts with state customers, then pulls in large companies before ending up with the most vulnerable small and medium-sized businesses (see NG dated April 4, 2026).
‘In effect, small businesses are financing key sectors of the economy and large corporations. At current interest rates, delayed payment turns a state contract into a loss-making project,’ Ellina Nikolaeva, chair of the public procurement committee at the Bashkir branch of Opora Russia, was quoted by Kommersant-Ufa as saying.
‘This is not just an accounting problem, but a sign of growing fragility in production chains,’ Bolotin told NG. ‘Working capital is effectively being drained away, with nothing to replace it. Banks are reluctant to lend to companies with falling revenues and that now applies to most industrial enterprises.’
The situation adds weight to warnings that Russia may soon enter a prolonged recession, despite official forecasts suggesting otherwise.
ORIGINAL: NG/Suppliers Keep Producing as Customers Stop Paying
