The government’s decision to postpone changes to the family mortgage programme until October 1 appears to have an obvious motive: the election season is hardly the ideal moment for an unpopular policy. The measure could prove unpopular indeed, affecting both developers and families. According to industry data shared with Nezavisimaya Gazeta by market experts, between 50% and 90% of home sales, depending on the project, rely on family mortgages. Russia has 15.5 mln families with children under 18, and, judging by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin’s statement, almost one in eight has used the programme since its launch. That figure may already be close to the limits of what the federal budget can sustain.
Banks, the construction sector and families have been given three months to prepare for the proposed changes to the family mortgage programme.
The revision of the programme, unexpectedly at first glance but quite logically in light of the State Duma elections scheduled for September, has been postponed
‘Following the President’s instructions, we are continuing work on updating the programme rules. There has been extensive discussion, but I can say that nothing will change from July 1. The current conditions remain in place for now,’ Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on his MAX messaging channel.
The government is considering various options together with the relevant ministries and agencies. ‘Our task is to improve the targeting of support and generate a positive demographic effect,’ Khusnullin said. ‘It is important to reach a carefully balanced decision.’ According to the Finance Ministry, that decision will not take effect before October 1, 2026.
The current version of the programme, which has already undergone some tightening, allows eligible families to obtain a mortgage at a subsidised annual interest rate of 6%. The programme is available to families with a child aged six or younger, families with two or more minor children, or families raising a child with a disability. The minimum down payment is 20%. The maximum loan amount is RUB 12 mln in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow and Leningrad regions, and RUB 6 mln elsewhere in Russia.
According to reports circulating in the media, the proposed reforms primarily involve introducing differentiated interest rates based on region and family size.
Under those proposals, rates in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow and Leningrad regions would range from 4% to 12% annually, while in the rest of the country they would vary between 2% and 10%. Families with only one child would pay the highest rates, while those with five or more children would qualify for the lowest.
Another proposal would limit the duration of government compensation for market interest rates to 15 years from the date the mortgage agreement is signed.
Just a week earlier, Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, had said there was a 90% probability that the new family mortgage rules would come into force on July 1.
Over the following days, however, either the situation itself or the authorities’ assessment of the likely consequences changed
Whether in July or in October, the discussion about making support ‘more targeted’ is effectively a euphemism for a partial rollback of state subsidies. Better targeting means reducing, or at least not expanding, both the amount of budget funding allocated and the number of beneficiaries.
Federal budget spending on subsidising mortgage interest rates for families with children during 2026–2028 had been projected at approximately RUB 1.8 tn.
The main challenge posed by subsidised mortgage programmes is that they are not one-off fiscal injections but long-term obligations undertaken by the state. Those commitments become even more burdensome while market mortgage rates remain exceptionally high, effectively prohibitive, because of the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy.
According to Khusnullin, more than 2 mln families have improved their housing conditions through the family mortgage programme since its launch in 2018.
Government data, based on the national population census, show that Russia has 24.5 mln families with children, including 15.5 mln with children under the age of 18.
Based on those figures, almost one in eight families with children under 18, around 13%, has already used the programme.
From the perspective of housing affordability, therefore, the objective would logically be to expand, rather than restrict, the share of families eligible for subsidised mortgages.
Even in its current form, however, industry experts say the programme plays a decisive role in the housing market.
‘Between 50% and 90% of sales, depending on the particular project, are financed through family mortgages. In other words, families eligible for the programme constitute a relatively small minority of all households, but they account for the majority of buyers in Russia’s new-build housing market today,’ Yaroslav Gutnov, founder of SIS Development, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta
At the same time, according to DOM.RF statistics, all subsidised mortgage programmes combined accounted for 63% of mortgages issued by banks in 2025 by number and 79% by value. The Family Mortgage programme was the main driver, representing 89% of all state-supported mortgage lending that year.
In early 2026, as the Central Bank gradually reduced its key rate and commercial mortgage rates followed, the structure of mortgage lending began to change.
During the first quarter of 2026, subsidised programmes accounted for 53% of all mortgage loans by number and 68% by value. Nevertheless, the Family Mortgage programme remained the dominant scheme, making up around 87% of all subsidised mortgages
Industry representatives welcomed the decision to delay the reforms. ‘The construction sector is already under considerable pressure, and making its position even more difficult would be risky,’ warned Dmitry Proskurin, Commercial Director at Metrium.
According to Proskurin, the proposed changes to the family mortgage programme could reduce housing demand by an additional 30–35%. That would come on top of an already significant slowdown: in Moscow, for example, the number of transactions in the new-build market has already fallen back to 2019 levels, he said.
ORIGINAL: NG\Family Mortgage Tightening Postponed Until After the Election
