A growing wave of seizures of tankers carrying Russian oil, as well as strikes on Russia’s export infrastructure, is creating the need to increase the resilience of the Russian economy to external risks. At the same time, the practice of trade restrictions, sanctions and financial limitations requires new mechanisms for international settlements. Russian economists recommend expanding bilateral trade with neutral countries using payments in cryptocurrencies pegged to gold. Officials have been discussing the introduction of gold-backed stablecoins for several years.
The rapid expansion of what can be described as ‘state piracy’, as well as threats from the United States and the European Union against Russia’s trading partners, is a new reality that is unlikely to change even after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Pressure from ‘dear partners’ in the form of tanker seizures or the blocking of international payments may even intensify. Awareness of this new reality is growing among Russian officials and economists.
The US–Israel war against Iran, the ongoing conflict over Ukraine, rising debt burdens in major economies and a slowdown in global economic growth are forcing international organisations to reassess the risks of a new global economic crisis, economists at the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) note.
Slowing global growth and the possibility of a debt crisis in developed and large developing countries imply a potential reduction in global demand for fuel and non-energy exports and, as a result, limited opportunities for Russia to expand exports, warn CMASF experts Renat Akhmetov, Roman Volkov and Irina Ipatova. According to them, in order to withstand rising global risks, Russia needs to build new logistics chains, find new buyers for its exports, and develop secure multilateral payment systems.
A possible tool for cross-border payments could be a gold-backed stablecoin. Payments using such a ‘gold stablecoin’ would involve central banks acting as ‘liquidity nodes’. It is envisaged that central banks in each country would exchange gold stablecoins domestically for national currencies for foreign trade participants.
A digital gold currency could become an effective alternative given the risks of a global debt crisis, which could affect the US dollar and the euro, as well as the currencies of emerging economies.
Gulf exporting countries are facing a decline in their surplus revenues, which were previously channelled into US government bonds. Importing countries such as Turkey and India are forced to support their national currencies using accumulated gold reserves, analysts note. Gold is also playing an increasing role globally as an alternative reserve asset.
‘For the first time since the mid-1990s, the combined market value of US Treasuries held by global central banks has become lower than the total market value of gold in their reserves (USD 3.7 tn versus USD 5.2 tn).’
Experts are also concerned about the rapid growth of public debt in emerging economies, which has nearly tripled over the past 10 years, from USD 12.8 tn to USD 36 tn. Between 2022 and 2025, debt in developing countries increased by a factor of 1.4.
According to IMF forecasts, US public debt will approach USD 50 tn by 2030. Total debt in developed countries will exceed USD 90 tn, while emerging economies will surpass USD 50 tn.
Although most of the increase in global public debt is driven by China and the United States, debt risks are more widespread. Many countries face high levels of indebtedness. This makes them more vulnerable to deteriorating financial conditions and less able to respond to future crises,’ the IMF notes.
The restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz only in the second half of the year could increase the damage to the global economy to the scale of the pandemic, when global GDP lost more than USD 3 tn and government debt rose by almost USD 25 tn, according to analysts at the World Economic Forum (WEF). Russian economists believe that the US failure in Iran signals a global financial crisis, corporate bankruptcies and the bursting of financial bubbles (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 1, 2026). Meanwhile, rising oil prices have already slowed global trade growth to around 1.4%, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Concern for the resilience of the Russian economy may be reflected in the new transport strategy of the Russian Federation up to 2050. The Ministry of Transport plans to approve this new transport strategy in 2026, Minister of Transport Andrei Nikitin said. The strategy is expected to be approved in November 2026, Deputy Minister of Transport Alexander Poshivai said at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum. According to him, a key priority will be Arctic logistics and the development of the Trans-Arctic transport corridor.
‘Russia has entered a long-term phase of irreversible geopolitical and geoeconomic shift towards the East and the South. Under these conditions, the old model that treated our country as a transit bridge between Europe and Asia has been exhausted. The new strategic logic requires a reorientation of transport policy from transit tasks to ensuring internal connectivity, spatial development and strengthening sovereignty. The main direction is the formation of a self-sufficient transport and economic framework in the centre of Eurasia covering the Urals, Siberia and the Arctic,’ states a report prepared by several organisations, including the Higher School of Economics and the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.
ORIGINAL: NG/Gold-Backed Cryptocurrency Is To Protect Russia From External Crises
